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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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