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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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