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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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