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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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