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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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