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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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