Despite continued growth in the bulk trades, the delivery of new vessels is beginning to take its toll. The BDI continued its decline, finishing last week at 1,520, while on Thursday the BCI dropped below 2,000 points, its lowest level in six months. In the commodity markets, it was reported China’s steel mills will log lower profits of RMB 77bn ($11.61bn) for 2010 due to the high price of ore. In total China steel makers paid RMB 170bn (25.6bn) extra to purchase iron ore from overseas between January to November, despite the fact imports fell by nearly 6m tonnes. Profit margins for the Chinese steel industry will be 3.5% in 2010, lower than the 6% reported for Chinese industry as a whole. Ore prices are expected to rise again this year, with Credit Suisse last week predicting a 21% hike to an average US$178/tonne basis CFR China for the year.

Supramax/Handy
The beginning of the week was quiet for the Supras in the Atlantic, firming slightly towards Friday, and the Handies remained stable in that basin. On the other hand, the Pacific market for Supras became very dull and rates on the larger sizes were pulled down by the weakening Panamax market.  A few sugar/agriprod Handymax parcels appeared on the market from ECSA for second half January but those charterers left with cargoes to be lifted on a prompt basis found themselves in tight situation with difficulties finding ships that were not delayed ECSA. Supramax units open ECSA were being fixed in the mid US$20,000s dop for trips via ECSA to the east, and Supras from WC Africa via ECSA to Continent were seen fixed in the high teens.  From the USG to Far East, larger units were getting close to very low US$30,000s. The Transatlantic round voyages showed levels in the high teens for Supras.  On the Continent, Handymaxes/Supras were getting fixed in the mid-high teens for trip to the east Med. Looking at the Pacific market now, there were very very few cargoes available and the Pacific round for Supras taken in North China was paying around US$7,000, while trip via Indonesia to India was closer to US$8,000. Trips with iron ore from India were paying in the low/very low teens.  On the period front, few Supras were reported but in the Far East, larger units were seen fixed around US$14,000 for short period.

Panamax
The Panamax market found some resistance this week after a very quiet second half of December and the 4TC average gained US$1,000 per day to close the week at US$15,500 on Friday. The Atlantic kept a tight tonnage supply, pushing some charterers to pay close to US$22,000 per day for prompt tonnage dely Continent for TA round. The USG grain export was seeing some activity especially for trip out paying very high US$20,000 per day for ship dely Cont redel Far East. We noticed as well a few steel cargoes out of Black Sea to India. East of Suez the market suffered from the flood in Australia and a high number of vessels were idle at anchorage waiting for shippers to load. Indonesia was active with coal exports and the biggest operators were willing to take in some tonnage paying around US$15/16,000 per day for short period which gave some constancy to the near term market. 

Capesize 
With little activity even after the New Year, Capesize rates continued to fall rapidly. The market has now seen a 20% drop in the BCI since Christmas Eve. Although the Atlantic held up for a while, by the end of the month it had attracted ships from the Pacific, ensuring rates softened in both markets. By Friday the 4TC had slipped below US$13,000 per day, and the BCI had fallen below 2,000 points, the first time since the quiet months of August. The decline continued on Monday and the 4TC lost nearly another US$1,000 to close at US$11,900 per day.    
Source: BRS Dry Bulk