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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6846 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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