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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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