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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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