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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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