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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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