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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
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Showing 336 to 340 news of total 6846 |
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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