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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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