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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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