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Tuesday, 23 February 10
TRENDS..... DRY BULK MARKET .... TRENDS


The dry bulk market was pulled along by the Capes this week, as fresh enquiry breathed temporary life back into the market. Short period rates also rose above spot rates for both the Capes and Panamaxes, suggesting there is some confidence for the medium-term once the Chinese holidays are over. In the mining markets, Fortescue announced a steep drop in net income for 2009 but reiterated claims that demand would outweigh supply in the current year. And a new report from accountancy firm Ernst & Young predicts 2010 will once again see lively merger and acquisition activity in the mining industry on the back of bullish demand forecasts. After a quiet couple of years in which ‘only’ US$60bn of M&A deals were completed (half by China), Ernst & Young predicts deal volume could return to 2006 levels of around US$175bn this year.

Supra/Handy  
Although activity was slow on the Handy/ Supramax market last week due to the Chinese holidays, the market found its resistance level on Wednesday (bottoming out at US$21,215 for the Supramax 6TC) and thereafter the trend was upwards. From Monday to Friday, the Supramax index gained 2% and the 6TC closed the week at US$21,720. In the south and north Atlantic there was a lack of prompt tonnage, although it was the opposite in the Black Sea/Med area, where availability was higher than demand. As a result, in the Atlantic Supramaxes were getting pretty good numbers at about US$3233,000 for a time charter trip delivery west Africa via ECSA redelivery Sing/Japan, and about US$35,000 for a trip charter delivery NCSA redelivery Continent. There was very little reported last week for the Pacific market, and it was only near the end of the week that more enquiries were seen, for both spot and short period basis. However many players still chose to hold off and wait for the Chinese to return, in order to get a better feel of the market. In the meantime, more coal cargoes from Indonesia were seen (March dates), but sentiment remains cautiously bullish as more tonnage is expected to be available during the month.

Panamax 
It was a pretty flat week for the Panamax market as Chinese players were celebrating the New Year, but overall there was still a positive tone as the index gained 168 points to 3,179 during the week. The general volume of business was obviously thinner and most of the business fixed was for 1 or 2 laden legs with spot deliveries. Atlantic cargoes were limited and rates for transatlantic rounds were in the region of US$25-27,000 depending on size and position. The fronthaul activity was really quiet and only Indian loaders could still obtain healthy numbers for time charter in the midUS$30,000s. The Pacific rates were negotiated in the low US$20,000s. Very few operators took the risk of fixing tonnage for short period in this very slow market, and instead are waiting to see what this week brings. 

Capesize
Cape markets revived somewhat this week, and the four time charter average rose above US$30,000 once again. Overall the BCI rose 8% Friday-toFriday, with most of the gains seen on the trade into China. Although there has been no long term period since the middle of the month, short period activity continued to tick over at fairly robust  rates. A 170,000 dwt vessel was reported taken for 4-6 month deal at US$37,000/ day, while there was a further report of US$41,000 per day for a 5-7 month charter. Rates dipped again on Monday however, and most players are watching to see how trade pans out in the coming days.

SOURCE: Barry Rogliano Salles  



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