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Wednesday, 27 January 10
ASIA'S 2010 STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO REACH 460 MLN T


* China to import up to 100 mln T of steam coal in 2010
* China, India seen investing in southern Africa assets


Asian imports of steam coal will rise to 460 million tonnes this year from roughly 400 million tonnes in 2009, which will boost prices, a coal consultancy said on Wednesday.

Demand for coal by far outstrips supply in countries like India and China, which are largely reliant on coal to feed their power industries, and heightens their reliance on imports from countries such as South Africa, one of the top producers of the commodity.

Gerard McCloskey, head of the consultancy, told a coal exports conference in Cape Town most South African coal may be going to Asia this year.

"This year the feeling is that 75 percent of South African coal may be going to Asia ... I don't know where the coal is going to come from to satisfy the market," he said.

India was the biggest single buyer of South African coal in 2009, accounting for 22-35 percent of monthly exports throughout the year, and is hungry for more to feed its burgeoning power needs.

South Africa shipped just 61 million tonnes of coal last year, despite an export terminal capacity of 76 million tonnes, because of a lack of adequate railway infrastructure to transport the resource to the port.

There are already enquiries from India and China for far more coal than is available for the first quarter of the year, making a scramble among buyers and an increase in prices inevitable, producers say.

"China will continue to dominate... understanding China will help us understand what is happening to the market," - Gerard McCloskey

McCloskey said China alone, which produced nearly 2.9 billion tonnes of coal in 2009, will need as much as 5-7 billion tonnes in the 2020s to feed its rising demand.

China is the world's largest coal producer but became a net importer last year when the price of domestic coal outstripped that of imported coal.

China is expected to import up to 100 million tonnes of steam coal in 2010 and up to 70 million tonnes of coking coal, he said.

"China will continue to dominate... understanding China will help us understand what is happening to the market," he said.

McCloskey said India and China would also seek to invest in coal assets in various regions, including southern Africa.

Source: Reuters



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