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Thursday, 17 December 09
CHINA, INDIA DEMAND MAY BOOST THERMAL COAL PRICE, JPMORGAN SAYS


Demand for thermal coal from China and India may boost prices of the fuel to $80 a metric ton next year amid reduced supplies and lower inventories, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report.

Prices of coal burnt at power stations may rise to $85 a ton in 2011 from $70 this year, JP Morgan said in a report today. China and India may import a combined 63.9 million tons of thermal coal next year and 56.4 million tons in 2011, it said. Power-station coal prices at Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, fell 0.7 percent to $79.90 a metric ton in the week ended Dec. 11, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

“Supply will be tight in the next two years,” Stevanus Juanda, a Jakarta-based analyst for JP Morgan, said in the report. “In the second half of 2009, we have observed sizable imports of coal by China, due to the closure of mines in the Shanxi region and rise in electricity generation.”

Chinese imports of both thermal and coking coal may exceed 100 million metric tons in 2009 and rise to 200 million tons annually over the next several years, JPMorgan said in a report last month. China imported about 41 million tons last year and imported about 97 million tons in the first 10 months of this year,
Bloomberg data show.

Lack of supplies and an increase in demand may result in global thermal coal inventories declining from 40 million tons this year to 22.7 million in 2010, and stay at 25.6 million in 2011, JPMorgan said.

Indonesia may be able to offer only 15 million tons of additional supplies to the export market in 2010 and about 6 million tons in 2011 because of domestic obligations, the report said. Australian thermal coal exports will increase marginally by 2 million tons in 2010 while staying flat in 2011, it said.

Indonesia and Australia together supply about 50 percent of the global thermal coal exports, according to the report.

Benchmark thermal coal grades may rise to about $100 a metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2010, led by economic growth in Asia and underinvestment in coal capacity, Dileep Srivastava, senior vice president for investor relations at PT Bumi Resources, said in October.
Source: Bloomberg



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