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Thursday, 17 December 09
RBCT PROBLEMS TO CAUSE STEAM COAL PRICE SPIKE IN Q1


Bugs in the new computer system at South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal and persistent rail problems will make it impossible for exporters to meet demand from India and China in Q1 and will push prices up, sources say.

Producer and transport sources said logistical bottlenecks have caused coal stockpiles to swell at the mines and terminal stocks are so low that exporters are having to buy from each other to fill waiting ships.

"Vessel loadings are being delayed and some companies are having to buy in to fill vessels because they can't move their own coal quickly enough," one industry source said, singling out problems with the computer system.

"This is costing billions of rand in demurrage," he added.

RBCT Chief Executive Raymond Chirwa declined to comment on the talk of computer problems.

"The terminal is not the issue at the moment," he said. "The terminal is at 76 million tonnes (a year) now and other logistical facilities are not even close to that," he said.

STOCKPILES

BHP Billiton has over 1 million tonnes of coal at its mines and other miners have similar quantities, industry sources said.

The computer system problems will take months to fix and there are few signs that rail operator Transnet will improve its efficiency in the very near term, they said.

"Our view is that the (export coal) channel has not been optimised to achieve its full capacity," Transnet Freight Rail spokesman John Dludlu said.

Prompt South African coal prices have risen over 16 percent during the past six weeks to $72.00 a tonne FOB Richards Bay on strong Asian demand and limited supply.

A scramble for coal by Asian buyers could quickly add $5-$10 a tonne to current prices, producers and traders said.

Richards Bay has the capacity to export 76 million tonnes but will ship only 60 million in 2009 due to rail problems.

India has taken over 30 percent of South Africa's coal exports and is hungry for more to feed its burgeoning power need.

There are already enquiries from India and China for far more coal than is available for Q1, making a scramble among buyers and a hike in prices inevitable, producers said

"Stocks are extremely low, below 2.4 million tonnes and likely to fall much further in the next two weeks," one coal industry source said.

As part of its Phase V expansion to raise export capacity to 91 million tonnes a year, RBCT installed new equipment to move coal and a new computer system, the Terminal Control System.

The TCS plans the most efficient route for coal from stockpile to waiting vessel. Bugs caused delays of several days to shiploading and made it impossible to use new equipment.

RBCT has reverted to its original computer system while it fixes the TCS bugs.

"Until they get the TCS sorted out there cannot be any Phase V, it's just not possible," the transport source said.

On Monday RBCT announced it was delaying the start of its Phase V expansion to Q1 2010 - a year later than originally planned.
Source: Reuters



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