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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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