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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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