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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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