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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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