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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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