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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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