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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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