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Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the back of light tight oil production and increased NGLs output from non-conventional basins. US light tight crude production increased by 0.5 mb/d, with the Permian constituting the main source of growth, increasing by 0.6 mb/d, supported by a relatively lower breakeven price and higher drilling rig activities, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford declined. Liquids supply in Russia rose by around 230 tb/d. Canada, Guyana, China, Brazil and Oman also contributed to production growth in 2022. These developments were partially offset by supply declines totalling around 0.5 mb/d, mainly from Norway, Thailand and the UK.
Capital spending for oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in non-OPEC countries increased by US$72 bn y-o-y in 2022 to US$431 bn. It is expected to rise by around 10% y-o-y in 2023. On a country level, E&P spending for 2023 is forecast to increase in Norway, Brazil, the US and Canada by 26%, 15%, 12%, and 8%, y-o-y, respectively. The year 2022 proved to be an extraordinary period for the energy market, with most oil and gas companies witnessing healthy profits. However, the ratio of investment to cash from operations was exceedingly low, since many international oil companies continue to focus on capital discipline to improve their balance sheets. Overall investment levels for non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels. However, this is still significantly below the high of US$747 bn in 2014.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. There remains substantial uncertainty, however, regarding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the potential impact on Russian oil supply. Moreover, US liquids supply developments will continue to hinge on the degree of capital discipline employed by companies and the extent to which cost inflation impacts oil production. Liquids’ output in the OECD is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Norway and Canada. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to grow by 0.7 mb/d, with NGLs and biofuel production also expected to rise. In the US, the oil rig count has rebounded from 490 units in January 2022 to 591 units in the last week of April 2023. Moreover, US core oil frac operations continue to stay above 1,000, on a monthly basis. Canadian oil production, particularly Alberta’s oil sands, is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2023. Production growth in the North Sea and OECD Europe countries is also projected at around 0.2 mb/d, mainly supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field development.
In the non-OECD region, Latin America is forecast to be the key driver for liquids supply. Output in the region is set to increase by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly from five offshore startups in Brazil and stable production at the Liza FPSOs in Guyana. Liquids output in Kazakhstan and China is also expected to rise y-o-y, by around 110 tb/d and 70 tb/d, respectively.
Uncertainties to the forecast remain large, especially given ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Moreover, high inflation levels, coupled with supply chain issues and monetary tightening by major central banks may also impact the cost of oil production and upstream sector investment levels. Given the uncertainties ahead, OPEC Member Countries and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely monitor market developments over the remainder of the year, to help safeguard a stable and balanced market for the benefit of both consumers and producers.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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