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Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the back of light tight oil production and increased NGLs output from non-conventional basins. US light tight crude production increased by 0.5 mb/d, with the Permian constituting the main source of growth, increasing by 0.6 mb/d, supported by a relatively lower breakeven price and higher drilling rig activities, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford declined. Liquids supply in Russia rose by around 230 tb/d. Canada, Guyana, China, Brazil and Oman also contributed to production growth in 2022. These developments were partially offset by supply declines totalling around 0.5 mb/d, mainly from Norway, Thailand and the UK.
Capital spending for oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in non-OPEC countries increased by US$72 bn y-o-y in 2022 to US$431 bn. It is expected to rise by around 10% y-o-y in 2023. On a country level, E&P spending for 2023 is forecast to increase in Norway, Brazil, the US and Canada by 26%, 15%, 12%, and 8%, y-o-y, respectively. The year 2022 proved to be an extraordinary period for the energy market, with most oil and gas companies witnessing healthy profits. However, the ratio of investment to cash from operations was exceedingly low, since many international oil companies continue to focus on capital discipline to improve their balance sheets. Overall investment levels for non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels. However, this is still significantly below the high of US$747 bn in 2014.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. There remains substantial uncertainty, however, regarding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the potential impact on Russian oil supply. Moreover, US liquids supply developments will continue to hinge on the degree of capital discipline employed by companies and the extent to which cost inflation impacts oil production. Liquids’ output in the OECD is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Norway and Canada. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to grow by 0.7 mb/d, with NGLs and biofuel production also expected to rise. In the US, the oil rig count has rebounded from 490 units in January 2022 to 591 units in the last week of April 2023. Moreover, US core oil frac operations continue to stay above 1,000, on a monthly basis. Canadian oil production, particularly Alberta’s oil sands, is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2023. Production growth in the North Sea and OECD Europe countries is also projected at around 0.2 mb/d, mainly supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field development.
In the non-OECD region, Latin America is forecast to be the key driver for liquids supply. Output in the region is set to increase by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly from five offshore startups in Brazil and stable production at the Liza FPSOs in Guyana. Liquids output in Kazakhstan and China is also expected to rise y-o-y, by around 110 tb/d and 70 tb/d, respectively.
Uncertainties to the forecast remain large, especially given ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Moreover, high inflation levels, coupled with supply chain issues and monetary tightening by major central banks may also impact the cost of oil production and upstream sector investment levels. Given the uncertainties ahead, OPEC Member Countries and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely monitor market developments over the remainder of the year, to help safeguard a stable and balanced market for the benefit of both consumers and producers.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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