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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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