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Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
 COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high this week at 4,507 points with all other index also going up this week. The BDI increased this week by 396 points up by 9.6 pct. The increase on cape index this week was 359 points up by 5 pct. The Panamax index also maintained the momentum as last week and increased by 466 points up by 11.2 pct and closed at 4,424 points. The Supramax index was up by 340 points up by 16 pct and closed at 2,487 points. The handysize index increased by 118 points up by 12 pct and closed at 1,088 points.
The average charter hire was at Cape / US$ 81,567 per day, Panamax / US$ 35,597 per day , Supramax / US$ 26,009 per day and Handysize / US$ 15,703 pday.
The supramax index in the Far East (S6 route) was quite firm this week at US$ 25,563 per day which is up by almost 22 pct compared to last week. The ECI / China (S7) route was quite firm at US$ 26,735 per day which is up by almost 16 pct compared to last week.
Short period rates for Supramax was at US$ 25,000/26,000 per day for vessels opening Far Eeast / SE Asia. Supramax charter rates for one yea is around US$ 19,000 / 20,000 per day.
THREE YEARS FUTURE
The futures for three years (2010-2012) was almost same as last week and was around Cape / US$ 30,000 per day, Panamax / US$ 17,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 15,500 per day, Handysize / US$ 11,500 per day.
According to data from the World Steel Association, October world crude steel production hit a 14-month high of 112.2 Mt, posting a 13% increase year-on-year. This is the second month in a row when global steel output represented a year-on-year increase. The majority of this increase was due to China and the CIS, which registered growth of 42.4% and 26.9% year-on-year with monthly production at 51.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which hit a fresh 2009 high this week, should no longer be seen as an accurate gauge of the world economy, but rather a measure of reviving Chinese industrial activity. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, a resurgence in seaborne freight movement would be a major sign of a world economic recovery.
Indeed, lately, the Baltic index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping resources, including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, has been climbing and hit a new 2009 high this week. But analysts and shipping industry officials said the rise in the index was driven by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and grains, as well as rising port congestion in Australia and China, and did not necessarily bode for a broader world recovery.
'It is not really Japan, European or other Asian demand that is driving this (rally). It continues to be China,' Martin Sommerseth Jaer, analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
The main index, which was launched in 1985, has remained volatile this year due to swings in demand by China for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel.
'Last year, the BDI did work quite effectively as a global economic indicator,' Peter Malpas, group research manager with shipbroker Braemar Seascope, said. 'This year it definitely has not.' The Baltic Exchange said it had never set out to provide economic insight and analysis through the main index, 'but an independent and accurate view' of the cost of moving dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal by sea.
'With so many factors coming into play and driving freight rates, what these figures mean for the wider economy is for economists to decide,' a Baltic Exchange spokesman said.
FLEET STRENGTH
Strong appetite for iron ore and coal in India and China and other industrial activity helped push the Baltic index to a record high in May 2008 of 11,793. But global turmoil, compounded by a reduction in demand for raw materials, manufactured goods and consumer products drove it back down to as low as 663 in December.
The volatility this year on the main index has been also been driven by the availability of large capsize ships, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rather than signals of appetite for raw materials from the wider economy.
In June and November, when the main index rallied, port congestion in China, as well as at coal ports in Australia, tightened the availability of ships, helping to sustain gains.
'The BDI is a reflection of both supply and demand. At the moment, it is being led up by the capes. Clearly congestion has returned,' Nigel Prentis, head of research, consulting and advisory with HSBC Shipping Services Ltd, said.
Analysts say a major factor that is likely to weaken the BDI's connection with the world economy in the coming months is the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010, despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays.
Shipbroker SSY has estimated net fleet growth in the dry bulk sector of around 40 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) this year versus around 27 million dwt in 2008.
'Trying to look at the BDI as a forward indicator of global demand recovery is a bit risky because we have this supply overhang and that will obviously play a big part in the BDI going forward,' HSBC's Prentis said.
Analysts said the BDI needed a relatively stable fleet level and global commodity demand not just from China for the index to reflect world activity.
'What we could witness particularly in the second half of next year when the majority of ships are delivered is the global world economy going up, but the BDI coming down because the BDI will be reflecting the growing size of the fleet,' Braemar Seascope's Malpas said. 'As the fleet grows, the supply side of the market increases and that creates a lower utilisation of the fleet which will obviously reduce freight rates.'
Malpas said it could be two or three years before the fleet profile would stabilise.
'Obviously not too many new orders will be coming out of the yards post 2012, we may get another period when the BDI is essentially being driven solely by commodity demand,' he said. (Source : Reuters)
The congestion in Australia increased to 124 vessels in EC Australia with maximum waiting at DBCT 30/40 days , whereas Haypoint was around 10/12 days and Newcastle was around 14/16 days. The waiting at WC Australia for iron ore was at 9 vessels.
CRUDE OIL
The brent crude prices remained firm this week at US$ 77.55 per barrel . The bunker prices during the week touched for IFO 380 cst at US$ 475 pmt, however the prices softened by Friday 20th Nov at around US$ 466 pmt for IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore.
FREIGHT FORECAST
Click here for Vistaar’ s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes(cs)
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Thursday, 12 November 09
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR
Reuters reported that, Russia's coal mines, particularly in the Arctic and Far East, are attracting interest from foreign investors as commodity pr ...
Thursday, 12 November 09
BANPU TO INVEST US$ 466 M
Plan targets 33.5m tonnes of coal per year
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, is planning capital investments of ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
NORTHSTAR TAKES 40 PER CENT OF INDONESIAN MINING COMPANY
AltAssets reported that, PT Northstar Pacific Partners, the Indonesian affiliate of US private equity firm TPG, has taken a 40 per cent stake in Ind ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS SOLD BIG VOLUMES OF 2010 TO CHINA
* China has scooped up large volumes of Indonesian coal
* Total exports to China in 2010 seen to exceed 20 million T
* Chinese, Indian demand may ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDIAN COAL IMPORT FROM SA IN OCTOBER
Reuters reported that India imported 2.4 million tonnes of coal from South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal in October 2009, 35% of the total of ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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