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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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