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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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