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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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