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Friday, 20 November 09
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS HOPE RALLY WILL LAST


Boon times are still on the daily agenda of every dry bulk ship owner these days after one of the toughest year in the industry’s century-old history. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index, a leading gauge which tracks the cost to hire a dry bulk carrier, hauling commodities such as iron ore and coal, kept its upwards momentum, albeit it showed the first signs of fatigue after almost eight weeks of rallying.

The BDI ended at 4,661 points, up by 18, but the Capesize sector posted its first daily drop in many days, with the relative index (BCI) now at 8,056, down by 187 points. Still average daily time charters for capesizes stand at $ 87,118, close to this year’s highs.

According to Jim Wong, an analyst with Nomura Holdings of Hong Kong, the Baltic index will average 4,000 points in 2010. In a relative report he mentioned that the 4,000 level implies all contracts are profitable. He also added that “we reiterate our bullish view on the dry-bulk shipping sector, as we expect dry demand, mainly from China, will continue to improve, coupled with less-than-expected supply resulting from order-book delays and cancellations.”

Those are the good news thus far, since the market has raced towards the end of year, a rally which helped some owners find their optimism, book some good deals and boost their finances. But, once again, this latest rally of more than 450% from the beginning of 2009 has been fuelled by Chinese iron ore imports and ship congestion in key ports of China, Australia and Brazil. As everyone in the market knows, this factor is quite volatile and as soon as iron ore stocks in China are replenished, the BDI could very well head the opposite direction.

This time more than ever, it’s imperative for owners to scrap their older vessels, as they will compete with their younger ones, as soon as they are delivered. According to Peter Norfolk, director at SSY Consultancy and Research, who was quoted by Bloomberg, at the start of 2009 about 170 Capesize vessels were on order for delivery this year alone. However, net new ship availability amounts to just 35 vessels currently, as a result of scrapings, congestion and the fact that some greenfield shipyards have either not been built or have not delivered on schedule.

About 300 Capesize vessels were on order for 2010, Mr Norfolk said, but there was huge uncertainty over how many would be delivered.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that a total of 600 new building orders have been cancelled by ship owners. Out of them, about 400 ships or 65% are dry bulk carriers, with reportedly 120 of them Capesizes. however, this doesn’t mean much, as most yards continued building the vessels, in hopes of finding other buyers, which in fact has been the case with many Chinese owners, who are backed by local banks and of course the government.

Another interesting factor is that the main volume of cancellations occurred until May. Since then, the rate of cancellations was practically erased, with virtually no other cancellations, apart from a handful of tankers and container ships. Still, China alone seems to be able to support the market, as the country is investing in public works, which alone is a boost for demand of raw materials, while the real estate market is also on the rise.

As long as other economies return to the market, with the exit from the recession slowly becoming a reality (Singapore was another country which declared its economy is now out of the recession), dry bulk owners will have more things to cheer about.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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