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Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
 Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited direct near-term credit impact for energy-sector issuers rated by Fitch Ratings, according to the agency. However, the caps highlight that energy companies face mounting political risks that could influence investor perceptions of the sector and capex plans over the long term.
The caps have been proposed for 12 months, but even if they are extended, the direct impact should generally be limited if prices for coal and gas fall over the coming years, in line with Fitch’s base-case assumptions.
The near-term impact on Australian thermal coal miners’ financial profiles will be further mitigated, as typically around 80% of the thermal coal produced in the country is exported, and therefore is not subject to the cap.
The natural gas sector will be more exposed, as domestic demand accounts for a larger share of supply. Santos (BBB/Stable) and Woodside Energy Group (BBB+/Stable) are large suppliers of gas to the domestic market. Such sales account for more than 40% of Santos’s gas production, but we estimate that only around 15% of total production goes to the east coast markets that are exposed to the price cap.
Woodside’s domestic gas sales, including pipeline gas from the NWS Project, Pluto and Wheatstone, account for less than 6% of its gas production, with the rest exported as LNG. For both companies, most gas is already produced under long-term contracts, which will be unaffected by the caps, limiting the near-term impact. The proportion of output affected could nonetheless rise over time if the caps are extended beyond 12 months.
The prevalence of long-term supply contracts will also reduce the impact of the caps for most domestic electricity and gas retailers, including Origin Energy (BBB/Stable). If global energy prices remain high, it is possible that the caps could offer a competitive advantage to some retailers that rely more on short-term supply contracts. That said, the superior sourcing ability and flexibility in contracts should limit downside risks for large retailers. For electricity sales, the highest-cost power generator generally determines the wholesale energy market price, and we anticipate a neutral to marginally positive financial effect for entities like Origin that have flexibility in their generation portfolio.
The price caps will add to a perception that Australia’s mining sector faces mounting political risk, even though we do not believe they will have a major impact on Fitch-rated issuers in the near term. For example, the government has announced plans to implement a new system to protect sites important to Australia’s indigenous peoples. Firms in the sector, as in other parts of the world, also face political risks associated with official efforts to promote the transition to renewable energy sources.
Mounting political risk may influence investors’ perceptions of the sector, and therefore the terms on which companies are able to access finance. This could also have ramifications for M&A plans or long-term capex strategies. Nonetheless, it is likely to take time to assess the impact, which may also be offset by other market developments.
Australia’s parliament on 16 December passed legislation empowering the government to regulate gas prices, alongside an AUD1.5 billion relief package for firms and households. It remains unclear how the relief package will affect power and gas market dynamics, but we expect its impact to be temporary. The authorities plan to cap domestic gas prices at AUD12 per gigajoule. Domestic thermal coal sales prices in New South Wales and Queensland will also be capped at AUD125 per tonne.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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