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Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy strategy and policy. And as Europe searches for viable alternatives to Russian gas, LNG seems the most popular solution to plug the supply gap. But LNG prices are rising fast, and contracting patterns are changing. Could there be other, more local, longer-term supply options?
A decade ago, Europe hosted some of the most active unconventional gas exploration programmes outside North America. Then the commodity downturn in 2015 – combined with some high-profile dry holes – brought a swift end to almost all of Europe’s onshore exploration.
Is it possible that shale exploration could come back into vogue as Europe searches for alternative gas supply?
In a recent video we talked through the potential for unconventional gas to eventually become a meaningful part of the solution to Europe’s gas supply problem – and the numerous barriers. Fill in the form to access the film and read on for some highlights from the discussion.
Russia’s war with Ukraine changed the game
Europe’s gas balance has changed fundamentally as a result of the conflict. In January-August 2022, Europe’s imports from Russia totalled only 55% of the volumes in the same timeframe last year.
Europe no longer has any illusions about the reliability of Russia as a gas supplier. Diversifying supply has become an imperative. So, without Russian imports, how much more gas does Europe need?
In a hypothetical scenario where the EU stops importing Russian gas by the end of 2023, the next couple of years would see record high import requirements. But longer term, there is significant uncertainty around demand – with a range of up to 100 bcm in terms of potential requirements. If demand remains resilient, we forecast that the supply and demand gap would be about 300 billion cubic metres (bcm). In a scenario where Europe’s recent decarbonisation and diversification plan, the REPowerEU, is successful, that gap would be closer to 210 bcm.
In either scenario, Europe will turn to LNG to plug the gap. In the next couple of years, it will need to compete with Asia for limited supply – all while LNG prices are rising.
That could open the door to alternatives like unconventional gas. But has the opportunity for European shale closed indefinitely after the last round of failed exploration? And can these options be delivered fast enough, before demand risks increase?
European shale has vast potential, but there has been no material production
Ten years ago, exploration and appraisal work across Europe spanned from Poland to the UK, Sweden, Germany and Austria. Target plays were shale and tight gas sands, which both had huge resource potential. Parallels to booming US unconventional gas supply were drawn, aided by some European shale plays showcasing excellent geologic and geochemical properties.
However, none of the in-place gas volumes were commercialised, and in five years of evaluation not much drilling and completion progress was made. Even in the UK and Poland, where activity was the most promising, only a few wells were finished, and sky-high costs coupled with management fatigue in the 2015 downturn stalled the projects.
In the current race to find alternative gas sources, could the tide be turning? The UK and Germany are both reportedly discussing lifting national bans on hydraulic fracturing. That would be a bold move that would set the stage for shale gas pilots again.
Would investors and E&Ps still be interested?
In the first round of European shale gas exploration, many of the Majors led this activity.
Now though, the Majors have shifted their unconventional focus to the Permian, or in some cases, scaled back global shale projects completely. Their shale portfolios appear to be largely set: they are unlikely to want more exposure to new unconventional assets.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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