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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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