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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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