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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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