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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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