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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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