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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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