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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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