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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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