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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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