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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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