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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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