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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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