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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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