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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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