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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Drewry’s LNG shipping equity index increased by 12.7% YTD as of 28 June 2022, outperforming S&P 500 which declined by 19.8% during the same period. Golar LNG stock price surged the most (up 87.9%), while Flex LNG increased by 24.8% and Nakilat by +18.2.%. LNG stocks have mainly benefited from the rising European LNG demand as the region switches away from Russian natural gas. We explore the reasons for the resilience of LNG shipping stocks amid the sell-off in the broader equity market and whether investors should consider adding LNG stocks to their portfolios.
FSRU focused stocks are key beneficiaries
Companies with FSRU exposure have particularly benefited as European countries are opting for FSRUs over their land-based counterparts. FSRU terminals can be installed in one-two years compared to three years for LNG import terminals. Golar LNG’s share price has profited from its exposure to FSRU, the company’s stake in New Fortress Energy (NFE – a leading FSRU player) and high crude oil prices. Amid a buoyant FSRU market, Golar LNG has entered into a contract with Snam to sell its 19-year-old LNG vessel Golar Arctic for USD 287.9mn (EUR 269mn) as an FSRU after conversion. The company has also signed an agreement with Snam to sell Golar Tundra FSRU for USD 350mn. NFE, which has a fleet of seven FSRUs and in which Golar LNG has a stake of 6%, has gained 68.5% YTD.
FSRUs are in high demand with Europe seeking at least 16 FSRUs to replace most of the Russian gas imports. We believe countries like Germany, France and Italy are willing to pay a high premium to acquire the assets, but with only 50 FSRUs (as of March 2022) in operation globally, the demand for FSRU providers has strengthened.
Buoyant market drives new charter wins
The upcoming EEXI and CII regulations and charters’ desire to secure LNG ships amid the geopolitical tensions are other factors driving LNG shipping demand. Flex LNG has won fixed charter for 12 vessels since March 2021, suggesting strong demand for its young fleet, with three of these charter wins in June 2022. Latest charter wins announced in June 2022 extend between seven and ten years, longer than most of the company’s existing charters and suggest increasing preference of charterers to go for longer term charter. Nakilat announced during its 4Q21 results that it has won the term-charter for all the four newbuild vessels delivered between 2Q20 and 1Q22.
LNG shipping prospects
The Russia-Ukraine war has brought the energy sector to the center stage with more focus on the LNG industry as Europe tries to wean away from Russian LNG imports and is ramping up its LNG import facilities by investing in FSRUs. As the coming years should see more FID for LNG liquefaction projects, leading to higher demand for LNG ships, we expect spot and long-term LNG shipping rates to firm up. LNG shipping companies stand to benefit from this high charter rate environment. Expectations of tight LNG supply and European geopolitical tensions is accelerating sale and purchase agreements for LNG and in turn, FIDs for new LNG projects. Charterers are preferring long-term charter to cover volatility in a tight supply market. While new order momentum is high in 2022 YTD with close to 100 LNG ship orders, we expect LNG shipping rates to continue to rise as most of the new orders have firm charter.
Upcoming EEXI and CII regulations to support LNG freight rates
As EEXI and CII regulations come into effect from 1 January 2023, we expect an increase in conversion activity of older stream turbine vessels into FSU for import projects as we believe these vessels will be more impacted by the new regulations. While these vessels will need to reduce their speed to comply with the regulations, the very old vessels will become unviable and will exit the fleet, affecting capacity and consequently supporting higher freight rates.
More borrowing capacity with a healthier balance sheet
LNG shipping companies have a healthier balance sheet at the end of 1Q22 compared to 4Q20. Furthermore, an increase in LNG vessel prices since mid-2020 indicates higher borrowings potential which can be used to acquire new vessels. Given the strong prospects, it is comparatively easier now to win a long-term charter compared to the previous two years.
Conclusion
We expect earnings of LNG shipping companies to benefit from positive LNG shipping prospects in the coming quarters. Given the tight LNG shipping prospects and LNG stocks’ resilience thus far, we believe investors can consider adding LNG shipping stocks to their portfolio. We prefer companies with solid revenues, young fleet and healthy balance sheet.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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