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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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