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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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